I recently wrote a couple editorial blog posts about the inner workings of runDisney. First I claimed I had figure out how to fix runDisney race registration, and then I laid out my problem with Club runDisney. Unsurprisingly neither was met with unanimous acclaim, but both stirred up a conversation! Which is perfect, because it’s ideally what an op-ed should do. It would make for a dull and dangerous world if we all agreed on everything every time.
Curiously, in each case one or more people brought up a specific point: race field size. The number of bibs available in totality, be they for the public or the club or charities, has allegedly shrunk. Which would be a logical and convenient explanation for why demand has so far outstripped supply in recent years.
But is it true?
LET’S CHECK THE runDISNEY records
Luckily, this is one of the few theories that is actually fairly easy to test! All I had to do was check the results archives. Now, technically these numbers don’t represent the number of bibs distributed, as a certain percentage of a given field will not finish the race for any number of reasons. Still, that percentage shouldn’t vary too wildly, which means that this data can give us a general idea of how the field size fluctuates. It can also speak to a common corollary point: everything shifted after the COVID era.
First let’s take a look at those numbers, then circle back for some analysis. I sifted through the records for all the runDisney race weekends that currently remain standing, going back around ten years. (After that I started having trouble getting the pages to load.) There are some outliers, but I’ll highlight them as we go along. All of these races were cancelled once due to COVID.
So how have the fields stacked up over the years?
PRINCESS HALF MARATHON WEEKEND FINISHERS BY THE NUMBERS
2026: 16630 finishers
2025: 15879
2024: 15511
2023: 14549
2022: 12772
2020: 20499
2019: 20102
2018: 20457
2017: 20602
2016: 20138
SPRINGTIME SURPRISE FINISHERS BY THE NUMBERS
2026: 12711 finishers
2025: 12102
2024: 12198
2023: 11770
2022: 10824
In years previous, this weekend was themed to the Star Wars Rivals Run and the Star Wars Half Marathon: Dark Side. It’s not the same set of races, but as part of our pre- and post-COVID exploration, I’m including a few of those numbers here.
Rivals Run Half Marathon 2019: 12123
Dark Side 2018: 15104
Dark Side 2017: 16316
WINE & DINE HALF MARATHON FINISHERS BY THE NUMBERS
2025: 13740 finishers
2024: 13751
2023: 13577
2022: 11994
2021: 9958
2019: 12882
2018: 12477
2017: 13181
2016: 12658
WALT DISNEY WORLD HALF MARATHON FINISHERS BY THE NUMBERS
2026: 16280 finishers
2025: 13416
2024: 16036
2023: 15344
2022: 12701
2020: 21633
2019: 18419
2018: 20817
2017: Missing [Edit: I have been reminded that the half was cancelled that year!]
2016: 21506
WALT DISNEY WORLD MARATHON FINISHERS BY THE NUMBERS
2026: 13282 finishers
2025: 12532
2024: 12712
2023: 12693
2022: 11335
2020: 14116
2019: 11936
2018: 20092
2017: 17755
2016: 19851
BUT WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?
runDisney is – unsurprisingly – pretty tight-lipped about their inner workings. From this available data, however, when can extrapolate some findings with reasonable confidence.
One universal I noticed is that field size dips considerably in two places: when a race weekend launches/changes themes (as witness in the Star Wars to Springtime Surprise transition) and in the first instance of a race weekend after COVID. Both of these dips make sense. When changing a race weekend’s theme (and course) entirely, easing in is smart. And in the 2021-2022 season post COVID, the races were on but so were many distancing rules. A smaller field in that case was a necessity.
But what about the general accusation many have levied that runDisney has kept the bib numbers down? Well, based on approximately ten years’ worth of data, that appears to be true… and false.
WHERE THE SHRINKING runDISNEY FIELD THEORY IS CONFIRMED
Give or take some Did Not Starts and Did Not Finishes, the Princess Half Marathon had its largest field in 2017, when 20,602 runners crossed the finish line. This year’s Princess Half saw 16,630 finishers, down by almost 4,000.
The Walt Disney World Half Marathon’s largest field was in 2020 (remember January 2020?) with 21,633 finishers. This year’s WDW Half saw 16,280, down by over 4,000.
The Walt Disney World Marathon topped out in 2018 with 20,092 finishers. This year’s WDW had 13,282 finishers. I will note that it was a hot one and may have seen a larger percentage of DNFs than usual, but it’s still more finishers than the comparatively chilly marathon of 2025. Regardless, we can say that’s a difference of well over 6,000 finishers.
WHERE IT’S DEBUNKED
On the other hand, the Wine & Dine Half Marathon field size appears to have hovered around the same set point over the last decade. It did suffer a post-COVID dip, but the last couple years have had larger fields than their pre-COVID predecessors. I’d imagine this is due to the Epcot after party, which necessitates capping the number of runners so that they can all attend and potentially bring friends and family.
Springtime Surprise is an interesting case since we are looking at split data. Generally, Springtime Surprise Ten Miler fields are smaller than the Star Wars half marathon fields they replaced. Yet there are two mitigating factors here: firstly, there is now an after party in Typhoon Lagoon, which I would imagine is subject to total occupancy limitations similar to the Wine & Dine after party.
Secondly – and I find this fascinating – while the Springtime Surprise Ten Miler consistently has the smallest field of the races I examined, it is consistently the least popular and slowest to sell out. This is the only remaining race weekend where you can get some bibs types hours, days, and even sometimes weeks after registration opens. Whether or not this trend will hold remains to be seen, but it was the case as recently as last year.
At any rate, it proves that our real problem remains supply vs. demand. Any number of things runDisney is or is not doing may or may not be helping, but the crux is that there are simply not enough bibs to go around for most races.
THE GOOD NEWS: runDISNEY RACE FIELDS ARE GROWING?
Here’s something else I find interesting – and heartening. Currently Princess, WDW Half, and WDW Marathon field sizes are well under their pre-COVID averages, arguably by a fair margin. However, in every single case, that number has in most instances steadily grown year over year. You can scroll back up and see for yourself, but as an example, the Princess Half Marathon went from 12,772 in 2022 to 14,549 in 2023 to 15,511 in 2024 to 15,879 in 2025 to 16,630 in 2026.
Even Springtime Surprise and Wine & Dine have grown a bit. Okay, Wine & Dine had 11 fewer finishers in 2025 than 2024, but I think we can chalk that one up to DNF fluctuation.
Thus the question becomes: will this trend continue? Will we see a return to pre-COVID numbers in the next couple years? Might we surpass pre-COVID numbers? Or will field sizes level out at some point? And when runDisney makes these decisions, what are their metrics? I said this in my earlier post, but a little transparency would go a long way!
WHAT THE DATA (AND runDISNEY) DOESN’T SAY
That’s what I’ve synthesized, at least. Here’s what the data doesn’t tell us.
How many bibs are allotted for Club runDisney? How many are allotted for the masses? And how about charity bibs? Or select international travel agents, who I have heard can put together bib packages? Do they NEED smaller fields for some reason, or are they choosing it?
This is not comprehensive data, and ultimately I’m just spinning theories. I don’t really know anything. What do you think? I will say that after clocking the increasing field sizes, I am now cautiously optimistic that the pattern will hold. Whether or not a return to 20,000+ bibs will be enough to meet demand remains to be seen. Please, runDisney, won’t you try it and see?
Don’t forget, you can follow FRoA on Threads @fairestrunofall and on Instagram @fairestrunofall. If you have any questions or thoughts, leave a comment or email fairestrunofall@gmail.com. See ya real soon!